What about the running?

I haven't talked much about the state of my running on this blog, so I thought I'd address that. At this point, I know no one is reading this, and actually, I prefer it that way. I'm not interested in people following my daily activities. However, I want a record of my journey if and when I manage to qualify and run Boston. People love hearing tales of someone who was in a bad place that managed to turn things around and attain a stretch goal.

In February, I was around 205 pounds and tried running. It didn't go well. At that weight, it was really tough. So, I decided to take a break until I lost weight. (I'm a big believer that you don't exercise to lose weight. You stop eating to lose weight. Exercising makes you hungry and defeats the efforts to lose weight. Disagree if you want, but first, calculate how many miles you have to run to burn off a burger and fries.)

In early May, I had lost another 20 pounds so I started running again. I started at two miles a day, which took about 24 minutes. On a couple of occasions, I made it a mile without stopping. About a week ago, I increased the mileage to three miles a day and then a 5k every day. Early this week, I started using Strava. I completed 5 kilometers today, and my splits were 9:04 for a mile, 18:40 for two miles, and 29:33 for a 5k. Considering that I've been running consistently for less than a month I'm thrilled with those results.

I'm currently losing 1-2 pounds a week and running three miles a day. I asked ChatGPT what to expect my 5K time to be if I continue that for 90 days. Here's the response:

Considering both the weight loss and the increased running mileage, your 5K time is likely to improve significantly. Running more will improve your cardiovascular fitness, endurance, and running efficiency, all of which contribute to faster times.

Here's a more detailed estimate considering both factors:

Weight Loss Impact:

- As previously calculated, losing 20 pounds could improve your 5K time by approximately 2 minutes and 4 seconds.

Increased Mileage Impact:

- Running more consistently and increasing your daily mileage from 3.1 miles to 5 miles can significantly boost your aerobic capacity and running efficiency.

- While specific improvements vary, a general guideline suggests that consistent training over a few months can result in a 10-20% improvement in running times for beginners.

Let's be conservative and assume a 15% improvement due to increased mileage and training over 90 days.

Current 5K time: 29 minutes and 30 seconds

- 15% of 29 minutes and 30 seconds ≈ 4 minutes and 25 seconds improvement.

Combined Impact:

Weight loss improvement: 2 minutes and 4 seconds

Training improvement: 4 minutes and 25 seconds

Total estimated improvement: 2 minutes and 4 seconds + 4 minutes and 25 seconds = 6 minutes and 29 seconds

Estimated 5K Time:

Current 5K time: 29 minutes and 30 seconds

Estimated improvement: 6 minutes and 29 seconds

So, your estimated 5K time after losing 20 pounds and increasing your daily mileage to 5 miles over the next 90 days would be approximately 23 minutes and 1 second.

I find the suggestion that I'll run five kilometers in 23 minutes in 90 days laughable. But the answer does portend rapid improvement. I'd be very happy to break 25 minutes in 90 days. A 25 minute 5K is a bit over an 8 minute a mile pace. And that's the pace I need to qualify. If I could be running that pass only four months into this three year quest that would be a very good sign.

I'll revisit this post at the end of August and see how actual results line up with the AI predictions.